Don’t Buy the Anti-EV Hype

We’ve been working on promoting EV adoption for a little while now. It’s clear we’ve hit that part of the media cycle where coverage largely has turned from breathless anticipation into naysaying and nitpicking. No doubt, there have been some bumps in the road. But after all, like any big technological change, EV adoption has and will continue to face its own hurdles and challenges. 

But we’re here to tell you; don’t believe the EV haters. Negative EV headlines that spell doom for the industry just make better clickbait now than to say the slow and steady truth; we are about to cross over from the early adopters in the EV technology adoption life cycle to the early majority. There are a number of important forces that impact EV sales; including interest rates, regulations and even partisan politics, but more fundamentally there are three large ongoing changes that will drive EV growth in the US; increased affordability, more charging infrastructure and improving technology. 

Increased Affordability 

More affordable EV models are on the way. Largely thanks to Tesla, which still represents over half of the entire US EV market, EVs have been associated as a luxury car with a price premium for some time, but also largely thanks to Tesla, who has been cutting prices widely, affordability is on the rise. The auto industry is responding. There are 37 new models coming out this year, and another 34 next year according to Cox automotive and at least 12 of them, including models from Hyundai, Kia, Tesla, Toyota, Volvo and VW are priced under the average car price of $47,401. 

If and when the Tesla Model 2 comes out, it is promised to be priced around 25K, so iif the buyer is able to utilize the IRA tax credit as well as other state rebates, we are talking about a new Tesla that effectively will cost around $15,000! There’s another major affordability factor. Chinese cars are coming. Leading Chinese EV manufacturer BYD is opening a plant in Mexico and has already manufactured and sold millions of very affordable EVs. It just needed to access the US market and by setting up in Mexico it is poised to do just that. 

The used EV market will also add a whole new tier of affordability as it grows and increases its supply. Right now used EV inventory is limited nationally. Outside of California, it can be a real challenge to find one and the pricing is generally not favorable. That’s going to change, and it's not just because of Hertz flooding the market. As early EV adopters across the country buy their second or third EV they will naturally be adding more used cars to local markets. For consumers who qualify, purchasing a used EV paired with the IRA tax credit for used vehicles can offer EV access for under $20,000.  

More Charging Infrastructure

Understandably, insufficient public charging infrastructure is a major barrier for those that cannot charge at home. This has been well known for some time. That’s why $7.5 billion was allocated in the recent infrastructure bill to address the problem. Let’s just say, it is taking quite a while to make its way through the system, so the impact of this public investment has not yet been felt yet. But that doesn’t mean that money won’t make a major impact over the next few years as more and more chargers are finally placed in our parking lots, highways and streets. 

The other factor is Tesla again. Say what you want about the market leader, but they have the best charger network going, with the fastest charging. Recently most of the other OEMs including Audi, BMW, Ford, GM, Honda, Kia, Mercedes, Nissan, Toyota, Volvo, VW and others have adopted the Tesla plug standard and will be accessing their supercharger network. All total, the federal government is shooting for 500,000 public chargers to be online by 2030. 

Improving Technology 

Technology improvements usually continue over time. Today’s iphone is not yesterday’s Nokia. It doesn't take applying Moore’s law to see that EVs will keep getting better because of rapid improvements in battery technology. Tomorrow’s EV buyers can expect longer ranges, approaching 500 miles, even at lower price points. Today, 25 models can go over 300 miles on one charge, with the Lucid Air Grand Touring able to go over 500 miles. That’s more than the 300-400 mile range typical of most traditional gas powered vehicles. We can also expect batteries with faster charging times and batteries and that can more effectively withstand cold weather charging.  

So, don’t let the EV news cycle get you down. Despite the clouds and even a little rain, the road ahead is going to be a great drive.